Articles - Global
IATA and Tourism Economics has worked together to model two air travel scenarios, a baseline scenario suggests that 2021 demand will be 24% below 2019 levels and says that 2019 levels would not be exceeded until 2023. Their recent survey showed that 69% of travelers said they would not travel if it involved a 14-day quarantine period, which led IATA to urge governments to find alternatives to maintain or introduce arrival quarantine measures as part of post-pandemic travel restrictions.
IATA Airline News, 15 May 2020, Online
A recent IATA survey across 11 countries found that 84% of travelers were concerned about quarantine measures and 69% said they wouldn’t return to travel under such conditions. Therefore, IATA are proposing a series of measures to return to travel safely. It sets out a risk based layered approach involving health screening of potential travelers.
IATA, 13 May 2020, Online
The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has released a Tourism Recovery Assistance Package to offer guidance to member states in response to the pandemic. The package is structured around three main pillars: economic recovery, marketing and promotion, and institutional strengthening and resilience building. The package is designed to support governments, the private sector, and donor agencies who face the socio-economic emergency.
UNWTO, 12 May 2020, Online
UNWTO has announced that international tourism could fall by 60-80% in 2020 due to COVID-19 after Q1 figures revealed the sector was already down by 22%. There has been a loss in tourism revenue of $80bn due to an estimated 67m fewer international travel. UNWTO has said, however, that they see prospects for recovery in 2021 but with domestic expanding faster than international.
WARC, 12 May, Online
IATA has called on governments to work with the aviation industry, regarding preparation of post COVID-19 air travel environment, after IATA ’s new survey results show that 60% of travelers anticipate a return to travel two months after COVID-19 containment and 40% said that could wait up to 6 months. Airport Council International World forecasts a drop of more than 2bn passengers in the second quarter of 2020.
Business Travel News, 11 May, Online
IAG has released a statement predicting that it would be three years, in 2023, before passenger traffic levels return to before the pandemic. IAG Chief Executive Willie Walsh said, “there needs to be a group-wide restructuring in order to get through the crisis and preserve an adequate level of liquidity”. They are, however, planning a ‘meaningful return to service in July this year’ but says there are high uncertainties due to restrictions.
Business Traveller, 07 May 2020, Online
Regulations which require airlines to leave the middle seats free would significantly affect the operators’ economic prospects and wouldn’t delivery improvement in safety, says IATA. If these regulations were set in place, a standard 3-3 cabin would lose 40% of its capacity which would lead to 62% of overall industry’s available capacity. IATA says this will cause tickets to be significantly higher as airlines would need to increase fares by 43-54% to break even.
Flight Global, 06 May 2020, Online
More than 800 older travelers, 79% aged between 60 and 80, completed the online survey. More than half of older holidaymakers expect travel will return to a new version of ‘normal’ in 2021. A majority (81%) are keen to travel again. About a third of respondents expect to book a flight (31%), a UK holiday (29%) or overseas holiday (35%) within the next six to twelve months. Eleven per cent will only holiday within the UK for the foreseeable future.
Travel Weekly, 4 May 2020, Online
Airports Council International (ACI) World and IATA have called on governments to financially aid airlines and airports for them to survive the pandemic. Both airports and airlines are in financial liquidity crisis and the risk of the industry’s economic crisis will impact many as the aviation industry supports 65.5m jobs and $2.7tn of the world’s economy. ACI and IATA are calling on urgent balanced support to the industry through taxation relief, grants and loans.
Airlines IATA News, 1 May, Online
The travel industry is now the world’s biggest start-up and presents an exciting opportunity for entrepreneurs according to the founder of G Adventures. The pandemic has created ground zero for travel and tourism. He claims it is about leadership and making sure you take advantage of this crisis. A lot of things are being done now such as Emirates trialing finger prick tests to make sure you don’t have coronavirus or people talking about no middle seats.
Travel Weekly, 1 May, Online
WTTC called upon governments around the world to take three immediate measures to safeguard the future of travel as it cannot survive unaided. Firstly, to waive or defer all duty and taxes which add unnecessary expense and introduce flexible refund policies. Secondly, for governments to extend unlimited interest-free loans to businesses as a stimulus to prevent them from collapse. Thirdly, grant financial help to workers who are facing severe economic pressures. The travel sector needs an unprecedented level of support, not to ensure its immediate survival but to unlock the potential of travel and tourism to power the fastest possible recovery.
ABTA Magazine, 30 April, Online
Boeing has said that it plans to cut 10% of its workforce – around 15,000 employees worldwide after being put under pressure and being forced to ground its 737 MAX planes following two crashes in 2018 and 2019. Boeing’s CEO has said that the pandemic is “delivering a body blow to our business”. Boeing has also announced a loss in the first quarter (pre-tax) of $1.5bn and sales drop of 26% to $17bn.
BBC News, 29 April 2020, Online
New research by ForwardKeys has revealed that air travel fell 50%on the previous year. Cancellations peaked mid-March and global aviation seat capacity had fallen from over 40m seats in operation to less than 10% of that number today. The Y-O-Y variation has been highest in the APAC region, down 56%, then Europe by 50%.
Breaking Travel News, 28 April, Online
An IATA survey stated that 60% of travelers will return to travel within 1-2 months of the pandemic being contained. IATA recently held summits with governments and industry bodies to plan for a restart of the industry.
TTG, 27 April 2020, Online
A survey suggested that the majority of travelers are willing to share medical history and undergo screening measures in order to travel again this summer. 77% of those surveyed expected to make a trop by October 2020 with 41% expecting to make their next trip by July.
Travelmole, 26 April 2020, Online
WTTC has warned that the estimate of jobs at risk has increased to 100 million. G20 tourism ministers met via online conference on Friday and WTTC warned that over 100m jobs were at risk with a cost to the global economy of $2.7 trillion.
Travel Weekly, 25 April 2020, Online
According to Fitch the world GDP will drop by 3.9% in 2020 with the largest fall expected to be within the Eurozone. This is mainly due to the impact of ‘lockdowns’ in Q1 but most analysts recognize that modeling the future is a challenge in these unprecedented times.
Reuters, 22 April 2020, Online
Expedia is in talks to sell a stake into private-equity firm Silver Lake Partners and Apollo Global Management for around $1bn, after the company’s shares fell by 47% due to the pandemic. The company is expected to give board representation to the investors as part of the deal which could be announced this week.
Business Insider, 22 April 2020, Online
Messaging around cleanliness, social distancing, and food hygiene are contained in the announcement, designed to reassure customers about hotel safety regarding the pandemic.
Marriott International, 21 April 2020, Online
COVID-19 could have a lasting impact on the aviation industry by killing off large long-haul aircraft. This comes as airlines say they are considering switching to flying fewer, smaller aircraft, with Lufthansa beginning to scrap half of its Airbus A380s and Boeing 747-400s.
Daily Mail, 17 April, Online
In order for cruises to return there will need to be changes in how they operate. Whilst health screenings are the most obvious addition, some other areas may also operate differently going forward. Large dining buffets may be replaced by booked table service and robots previously employed by hotels for sterilization may also move onboard ships.
CNBC, 21 April 2020, Online
Latest estimates from IATA put global airlines losses from COVID-19 at $314bn. The figure represents a 55% drop in passenger revenue for 2020 compared to last year. Most airlines gain the majority of their revenues from international flights and so a return to domestic and phased international flights will still pose a problem to airline finances.
Reuters, 14 April 2020, Online
The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the need for more automation to ease process and reduce incurred costs. Ability to automate cancellation queries could save both time and costs as the volume of queries has caused large backlogs for agencies.
WiT, 13 April 2020, Online
IATA’s director general has stressed that although many governments have been very supportive, actions need to be taken now to avoid airlines becoming bankrupt. They have also threatened that a three-month lockdown could affect over 25 million jobs out of 65 million, directly or indirectly.
Flight Global, 8 April 2020, Online
The aviation industry is lobbying to rewrite the rules of a global agreement to tackle aviation emissions, with the COVID-19 outbreak expected to make targets harder to meet. IATA has called on the ICAO to amend the scheme for international aviation or they risk airlines pulling out.
The Guardian, 8 April 2020, Online
This article provides a summary of government measures from around the world to aid the economy. Fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have been rolled out globally in an attempt to mitigate the impact of COIVD-19
Reuters, 7 April, Online
WTM blog article around some things the hotel industry can do to aid revenue recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.
WTM, 6 April 2020, Online
#traveltomorrow is the campaign that UNWTO has launched to highlight hope in the industry. It encompasses the global messaging to stay at home and encourages people to ‘stay at home today so that you can travel tomorrow.’ #traveltomorrow
UNWTO, 6 April, Online
The industry, accounting for 3.6% of the world’s GDP, would have an astounding effect on the economy if it were to collapse. Currently, a total of 43 airlines have grounded their fleets with IATA predicting a fall of 46% in passenger demand compared to 2019. They have also predicted that a decline of this level will put 5.6million jobs at risk - $378bn in GDP. The potential global total bill for support and bailouts could top $1trillion.
Forbes, 6 April 2020, Online
Quarantine measures have cut air traffic by 90% in some places. Almost 10,500 aircrafts, 40% of the global fleet, have been grounded and that number is likely to increase. Many of the airlines’ hub airports have become a parking ground, as well as military bases, so they are able to fly as soon as restrictions are lowered.
Airlines IATA News, 2 April 2020, Online
UNWTO has expressed a need for two-fold help for the tourism industry. Urgent relief packages are needed to help mitigate potential job losses and decline and a plan around future recovery is required for the future.
UNWTO, 1 April 2020, Online
A Q&A with Jeff Katz on managing and leading during a crisis. He was the CEO of an OTA during 9/11 crisis and talks about common threads through various times of crisis.
Phocuswire, 1 April 2020, Online
Governments around the world have already stepped in to offer support packages for airlines, such as Singapore Airlines who has received $15bn. In Italy Alitalia, the nation's largest carrier, has been put into government ownership. Nationalization of airlines are to be expected but limited to countries that have a clear flag carrier.
Forbes, 1 April 2020, Online
The effect of travel bans, and social distancing has led to the number of flights worldwide down to 40%, according to Flightradar24. IATA has also said that around a third of passenger aircrafts (circa 8,500) have now been grounded.
Forbes, 1 April 2020 Online
According to figures from IATA, airlines globally are liable for $35bn in refunds for tickets sold but not flown. Beyond this the fixed costs that airlines incur takes the figure up to $61bn outflow of cash in Q2. IATA is appealing to governments to allow airlines to issue vouchers in place of cash refunds.
Forbes, 31 March 2020, Online
Kantar’s AI engine has analyzed 89 million social media posts and found that the topic of ‘travel & mobility’ is the most frequently discussed category overall.
Travel Pulse, 31 March 2020, Online
With tours at a low Travel Weekly looks at a guide to how they can recover. In a post ‘lockdown’ era local, domestic travel, and discovery seem a viable option as people will look to explore.
Travel Weekly Asia, 30 March 2020, Online
National Health Service of Britain has asked furloughed employees of easyJet, Virgin Atlantic, and other airlines to work for temporary hospitals, such as the Nightingale hospital in London, to treat patients suffering from the viral infection. Australian healthcare has said that attendants are typically easy to train for assisting medical staff.
TravelPulse, 30 March 2020, Online
UNTWO expects the international tourist arrivals could drop by 20-30% year-on-year in 2020 due to COVID-19. This could result in a decline in international tourism receipts between $300-459bn, which would account to only a third generated in 2019 ($1.5trn). This would also set back the industry by five to seven years.
Travel weekly, 29 March 2020, Online
STR global occupancy data shows the impact the virus is having on occupancy levels around the world.
Phocuswire, 26 March 2020, Online
Link to original article
Development Counsellors International (DCI) reached out to a group of 457 travel advisors to provide some insights into challenges agents currently face, what current needs they have and future expectations may be. From this they found that many agents (38%) are using this time to take part in online courses and webinars.
Travelpulse, 26 March 2020, Online
The WTTC has called on G20 countries and leaders to assign resources and co-ordinate efforts to rescue major travel businesses in order to save jobs. The organization warned that an astounding number of jobs are being lost daily and expressed the importance of keeping the sector going in order to reduce the global economic impact it would cause.
Travel Weekly, 26 March 2020, Online
The World Travel Organization (UNTWO) has launched a competition to find ideas to help communities recover from the crisis to aid the recovery process. The challenge calls for entrepreneurs and innovators to come up with ideas that can help the sector “mitigate the impact of the pandemic through health, economic and destination management solutions and kickstart recovery efforts”.
UNTWO, 25 March 2020, Online
Cleartrip claims that despite the downturn in bookings people are still eager to travel. Looking at patterns it believes that if restrictions are lifted, as expected, then Eid 2020 could be the biggest travel event. There is some optimism that the two week shut down will be sufficient, bookings are strong for Eid in May and prices are not in decline.
Arabian Business, 24 March 2020, Online
Airlines, such as Lufthansa and American Airlines, are trying to steer passengers towards vouchers for future payments instead of refunds, to conserve cash.
Forbes, 25 March 2020, Online
Google has added a travel restriction advisory section when anyone searches for flights, hotels and things to do. Google will also direct whoever searches on google flights to a help center article.
Engadget, 24 March 2020, Online
A new IATA analysis has projected that the aviation industry passenger revenue could drop by 44% ($252bn) below last year’s figures. This is a significant change between the previous analysis on the 5th March of $113bn.
IATA, 24 March 2020, Online
The Tokyo Olympics are to be postponed until 2021 after talks between the Japanese Prime minister and the Olympic Committee president. The Olympic games will continue to be called “Olympic and Paralympic games Tokyo 2020” even if they are to be held in 2021.
The Guardian, 24 March 2020, online
“Hospitality Helps” is the name of the initiative to enable hotels to offer their properties for use as field hospitals, for healthcare works that need a place to stay, for family members of patients and for other virus-related needs.
Phocuswire, 24 March 2020, online
Air Tahiti Nui has broken a world record by flying direct from Tahiti to France due to the American travel restrictions. Without its normal stop at Los Angeles International Airport, Air Tahiti Nui is operating its service to Paris non – stop from Papeete. The airline flew a Boeing 787-9 dreamliner, which is the longest scheduled passenger flight by distance, more than 15,715 kilometers. The aircraft was carrying around half of its passenger capacity therefore this allowed more territory without running low on fuel.
Travel Weekly, 24 March 2020, online
Expedia group has appealed to hoteliers to join a worldwide program to assist with thousands of cancellations from guests. Global Cancellation Waiver Program, a mechanism that has every property listen in its’ portfolios, will allow for a refund if a guest wishes to cancel.
Phocuswire, 23 March 2020, online
The association cited the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic as having led to a sharp decline in corporate travel demand. In order to focus their efforts on managing through this difficult period and the future, they have suspended all operations through May, as stated on their website. Alternative dates/venues for the ACTE New York and Singapore global summits are still being determined for later in the year.
Business Travel News, 23 March 2020, online
‘In one week some twenty-one million seats were dropped around the globe.... Capacity in Western Europe down by 53% in seven days, Latin America down 42% and the Middle East 33% and that’s before the announcement of emirates suspending services later this week.’
OAG, 23 March 2020, online
Data from Sojern shows an early spike in bookings for January 2021. Compared to this same period last year bookings are up for next year. Whilst obviously bookings with short lead times are down.
Travolution, 23 March 2020, online
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An article showing charts relating to the impact Covid-19 has had on flights.
World Economic Forum, 21 March 2020, online
Whilst popular tourist sites are unable to visit sites some destinations are offering virtual reality tours that could also be used to provide inspiration for travel in the future.
FastCompany, 19 March 2020, online
A blog looking at travel trends based on real time data. The data shows how in the US there was a downturn in hotel searches and an upturn in flight searches – perhaps due to the rush to travel home with travel bans imminent.
Sojern, 19 March 2020, online